New year, new challenges: how 2019 can be the year Canada tackles the 21st century
Yuval Harari’s latest book, 21 Lessons for the 21st Century, explores some of the most pressing challenges the human species faces in the immediate future - when it comes to workforce development, there are lessons for Canada.
In late December 1999, in the moments leading up to the final year of the 20th century and the first year of the new millennium, the world was in a near panic - a panic rooted in a technological unknown. The so-called Y2K bug was set to wreak havoc on computers across the world, but to what degree, no one knew. Today, nearly twenty years into the 21st century, technological trepidation lingers and like yesterday, our fears are still rooted in the unknown.
Yesterday the unknown was whether the code supporting our then budding digital infrastructures would fail. Today, it's instead the unknown of how our burgeoning digital everything will affect humans in the future. From work, to privacy, to governance, the digital is having profound impacts on all structures of human life.
The intersection of technology and work and the resultant unknown is causing particular anxieties across the globe at present, and is a reoccurring theme in Yuvel Harari’s latest book, 21 Lessons for the 21st Century. Harari’s exploration of the future and the future of work is highly relevant to Canada today and yields a number of important lessons.
As we roll into 2019, and policy makers grapple with the challenge of optimizing labour markets in the face of emerging technologies that have the potential to replace humans, two of Harari’s lessons deserve particular attention. First, the impact of disruption in the near-term is likely to be less job loss and more job shift, and as a result we need to focus on retraining. Second and related, in a period of disruption governments should focus more on protecting people and less on protecting jobs.
Disruption beyond technology
While technology is the cause of a number the great challenges societies across the globe face today it's far from the only, and Harari discusses a number of these other pressing challenges in 21 Lessons for the 21st Century. He discusses challenges like the re-emergence of nationalism and autocracy, economic inequality, mass migration, climate change, war, and the power of fiction over truth.
The book is Harari’s third in a loose trilogy on humans, their history (Sapiens), their distant future (Homo Dues), and their present (21 Lessons). Harari explores these global challenges in an effort to empower more people to join the conversation about our future. He says, “As a historian, I cannot give people food or clothes - but I can offer some clarity, thereby helping to level the global playing field.”
21 Lessons for the 21st Century is no doubt successful on this front, bringing to light and making accessible some of the most important conversations we need to be having as a societal collective. At this moment in time for Canada and Canadians, one of the most important challenges in front of us, and therefore one the most urgent conversations we need to have today is how to prepare our workforce for all that is ahead in the 21st century.
Century of the centaur: how work is changing
Labour market anxieties that stem from disruptive technology are largely focused on those technologies related to intelligent automation – AI, machine learning, and robotics – because of their potential to displace human labour. For Harari, while the displacement of human labour is obviously of concern, in the near-term he suggests (and I agree) that we should be more focused on how the jobs that do exist, and that will emerge, are changing.
When we hear statistics like forty-two percent of the Canadian labour market is at a high risk of being affected by automation over the next ten to twenty years, our natural inclination is usually to jump – we imagine a future dominated by robots where mass unemployment prevails. However, we need to be careful how we nuance this type of data – being affected by automation doesn’t necessarily mean job loss, but it does mean job change. This change may in fact be positive – instead of replacing humans all together, automated technology could be leveraged by human workers to take on certain tasks within their job, thereby enabling them to be more productive.
Imagine for example a government analyst that utilizes an AI-powered information scraping and summarizing tool that allows them to read only the highlights of recent news and research articles from across the globe on any topic they choose, an executive assistant that uses a chatbot utilizing AI and machine learning to set up meetings and book travel, or a car mechanic that uses digital diagnostic tools that are integrated into a global network that learn from each other, making diagnoses more accurate. These are just a few examples of how technology is enabling productivity without displacing humans.
In the chess world, where a number of advances in AI have been made, teams comprised of AI and humans are called centaurs, and in the near-term Harari suggests that human-AI cooperation, as opposed to competition, will dominate the labour market and that these “centaur” teams will proliferate. He says, “In fields ranging from policing to banking, teams of humans-plus-AIs could outperform both humans and computers,” and that, “AI might help groom the best detectives, bankers, and soldiers in history.” He is careful to note however, that in the long-run, as AI advances, all bets are off as to what can be automated. For now however, the future of work might be characterized in large part by the centaur.
While true that the tandem of human and machine will be able to take on much, it should be noted that there still exist a number of jobs where human workers retain a monopoly on skills, and as Harari notes, one such field is healthcare, and in particular nursing. While IBM’s artificial intelligence-driven super-computer Watson (of Jeopardy fame), is revolutionizing oncology, don’t expect the human face of healthcare to disappear anytime soon.
Caring for the sick and elderly requires, among other things, compassion, empathy and the ability to read body language – all uniquely human skills. In Canada at present, our demographics are such that immense opportunity exists in the health sector - the Canadian Occupational Projection System estimates that in 2026 there will be nearly 200,000 job openings in healthcare and social assistance.
Given the inherent difficulty of automating these jobs, we need to continue to focus our education systems also on developing socio-emotional skills and those skills that Northeastern University president Joseph Aoun calls “humanics” is his latest book Robot Proof. We need to cultivate the skills that will enable us to better work with technology, but at the same time, continue to develop those that allow us to retain our human edge.
For some of the population, current changes that are afoot are great news – the potential to cooperate with emerging technology means not only will humans not be displaced en masse (for now, anyways), but they might even be more productive and efficient. The existing monopoly on socio-emotional skills retained by humans also means that some sectors are currently insulated from automation.
However, the emergence of new technology and a shift to the digital does mean that humans are going to have to learn new skills in order to effectively work with these new technologies, and for adults at the peak of their career this might not be easy.
The retraining imperative
Technology has forever impacted the labour market, making some industries irrelevant while at the same time creating new ones – the term coined for this by economist Joseph Schumpeter is “creative destruction.” In previous eras, where lower skill jobs dominated the economy, transitioning from one sector to another was often feasible – this time however it might not be so simple.
Harari notes that, “Creating new human jobs might prove easier than retraining humans to actually fill these jobs. During previous waves of automation, people could easily switch from one routine low-skill job to another.” He gives the example of laid off farm workers moving to the factory floor with little need to retrain. Today however, the technological intensity of work makes it much harder to transition from the back-of-house at a diner to back-end digital marketing and from working deep in a mine to working with deep learning.
In many advanced economies – Canada included – creative destruction is following a different trend relative to previous periods of change. Today, newly created jobs are largely either high-skill or low-skill, and the jobs we are losing are most often those that have been dubbed “middle skill” jobs. This phenomena is referred to generally as skills polarization. The major implication of skills polarization is this: if the jobs we are losing are largely those in the “middle skill” category (routine jobs like those in traditional manufacturing for example), in order to retain a similar wage and standard of living, individuals who do face displacement will have to pivot to higher-skill jobs, and likely, this will require some amount of retraining and education.
At present, Canada’s retraining infrastructure is not developed to full capacity (polytechnics and colleges are doing lots in this space however) and for many individuals the opportunity cost to do any sort of additional training or education is high. To account for inevitable job churn – and job churn that will almost certainly require upgrading skills – Canada must make building retraining capacity a priority, while at the same time making supports available to individuals. Remedying the retraining challenge will take a whole of society approach – with government, employers, educators, not-for-profits, and individuals each playing a role.
A current government initiative underway that holds significant potential is the Future Skills Center – an arm’s length organization that will be established with an initial federal investment of $225 million over four years and a mandate in part to “develop, test and evaluate innovative approaches to helping Canadians gain the skills they need to adapt and succeed in the workforce.” The organization is predicted to launch in early 2019, and though promising is by no means a silver bullet solution to the challenge. While the Future Skills Center could help to innovate the training landscape, if individuals cannot afford retraining – either the cost or time associated – then we haven’t fully remedied the challenge.
In the face of disruption it’s necessary to also reduce the opportunity cost of retraining for individuals – for government that means incentives like grants, loans and tax credits. The current government has extended student loan eligibility to adults, but only to those returning to school full-time. Though a good first step, more than just retraining we need rapid retraining, and attending school full-time to obtain a full credential is likely unrealistic for most adults at mid-career. The government would do well to both extend loan and grant eligibility to adults attending school part-time, but to also deploy additional incentives that make short-term training more viable.
One such example that has seen success in other jurisdictions is the lifelong learning account (LLA) – a co-funded account that government, employers, and individuals each contribute to and that can be used to pay for an individual’s education and training throughout their career. Alistair Fitzpayne and Ethan Pollack at the Aspen institute note that, “The accounts are not designed to be long-term savings vehicles; balance limits and limited investment returns are intended to encourage workers to regularly use funds for training throughout their careers.”
The adoption of a federally administered LLA was proposed by advisors on the Finance Minister’s Growth Council in 2017. Specifically the Council proposed a Canada Lifelong Learning Fund (CLLF) as a means to “help reduce the financial barriers to continuing training for adults by co-funding investments both employers and individuals make in skills development.” While a CLLF has yet to become reality, it is a means to reduce the opportunity cost of education and training and for that reason alone should be given continued consideration. Further, a Government of Canada LLA would act as a strong signalling mechanism to Canadians and to the labour market that retraining needs to be made a priority for all.
Even if we can reduce the opportunity cost of education and retraining, there remains the challenge of delivery agents – who can effectively deliver rapid retraining to Canadians? As I said earlier, polytechnics and colleges are doing a lot in the adult retraining space – for example, using Prior Learning Assessment and Recognition to give advanced placement to veterans, new Canadians, and others at mid-career. The challenge however is scale – provincial core funding doesn’t cover adult retraining, so often these initiatives are delivered on a cost-recovery basis. In order to scale adult retraining at post-secondary institutions, provincial governments might consider making adult retraining eligible for core funding.
We also should think about retraining for those that are still employed, in order to stave off displacement – and on that front, employers are going to have to step up. While employers have oft been chided for their lack of investment in training, recent research from the Conference Board of Canada finds that employer investment in training is on the upswing, and across the country employers spent almost $900 on training per employee. Employers looking to protect their bottom line should consider how they keep their current workforce up-to-date in order to future-proof employees – it’s generally considered more costly to hire new than to retrain from within.
To ensure their own success into the future, individuals should get used to the idea now that learning is a lifelong endeavor. Economies will change – rapidly at times – and the skills they possess now likely won’t be the ones that they need later. It’s no longer sufficient to leave school in your twenties and expect that the education journey is over. If everyone can adjust to the idea that we will all need periodic (or constant) upgrading, upskilling, and retraining, all of society will be better prepared to succeed in the face of disruption.
Protect people, not jobs
While we don’t have the crystal ball that can tell us exactly what our labour market will look like over the next decades, we know this – we can expect change. If we know that we can expect change then one final lesson highlighted by Harari might be worth considering: protect people, not jobs. The slogan has been popularized in Scandinavia, where coming technological disruption sparks far less fear than in other places around the globe, because individuals know that though their jobs might disappear, there are numerous safety valves built into society that will ease transition.
A New York Times article about automation in Sweden captures this sentiment well: “In Sweden, if you ask a union leader, ‘Are you afraid of new technology?’ they will answer, ‘No, I’m afraid of old technology,’” says the Swedish minister for employment and integration, Ylva Johansson. “The jobs disappear, and then we train people for new jobs. We won’t protect jobs. But we will protect workers.”
In addition to free healthcare and education, Sweden also employs a network of “job security councils” that assist displaced workers in finding new jobs. The councils are funded by employers and act as a sort of insurance for redundant workers, providing retraining services and financial assistance. The system is highly efficient with over 80 percent of individuals finding new jobs in under a year – and many end up in positions that pay the same or better.
Employer consortiums that deliver retraining, education, and job placement services have yet to gain any really traction in Canada as of yet, but as means of supporting workers, the Swedish system may be worth some exploration.
For his part, Harari explores universal basic income (UBI) as a way to ensure individuals are supported regardless of what happens in the job market. There are numerous variations of UBI and its delivery – Harari describes it generally as a proposal wherein, “governments tax the billionaires and corporations controlling the algorithms and robots, and use that money to provide every person with a generous stipend covering his or her basic needs. This will cushion the poor against job loss and economic dislocation, while protecting the rich from populist rage.”
While his description is painted with a more dystopian brush, UBI can be an essential tool in supporting all citizens in an economy, and has been piloted in jurisdictions like Finland and Ontario. Pilots have been short (cancelled now in the case of Ontario) and delivered at limited scale – so it’s difficult to infer success or failure at present. However, as the dominance of technology grows in the labour market, UBI is certainly an idea we should continue to explore and one that should be on the radar of policy makers at all levels of government.
That said, the policy prescriptions themselves are less important than the principle – jobs will come and go with the winds of the market, but people will remain, and depending on the direction of market winds, will likely require support at some point on their career path. Instead of investing our public monies in the propping up of failing industries for the sake of jobs, our money will always be better spent investing in people, that with support will be able to transition more easily from those industries in decline, to those that are emerging.
2019 and beyond
Disquiet is natural in the face of the unknown – and there are many unknowns in our economy heading into 2019. When it comes to our labour market, if we can heed any of Harari’s advice related to the imperative of retraining and softening the blow of displacement by focusing on individuals rather than jobs, we will no doubt be better placed to succeed in the decades to come.
